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Case studyEUDR6 Oct 2026 · 3 min read

Before you rely on a plot record: 518 control blocks in five regions

We read 518 mapped boundaries of known cover the way we read a customer's plots. No natural forest block in any region was given a finding of an established stand: 0 of 220. On estates, the record reached findings on 51 of 65 blocks in Côte d'Ivoire.

0 of 220natural forest control blocks, in five regions, given a finding of an established stand
Regions
Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Malaysia, Indonesia, East Africa
Control blocks
518
Forest blocks
220, none given a finding
Crop and coffee blocks
298
Côte d'Ivoire crops
51 of 65 findings
Indonesia oil palm
34 of 45 findings
Kenya coffee estates
6 of 6 findings
Product
Plot evidence

The problem

An operator filing under the EUDR holds hundreds or thousands of plots, and needs to know how a per-plot record behaves on ground whose cover is already known.

What we did

Pre-registered control campaigns: 518 mapped boundaries of natural forest and established crop, read by the same record as a customer's plots.

The result

No forest block received a finding, 0 of 220. Estates reached findings in every region, and every count is printed with its denominator.

01

Overview

A per-plot record is only as useful as its behaviour on ground nobody disputes. Before an operator files with it, they need to know two things: does it ever give a finding to natural forest, and does it reach findings on the estates it is meant for.

We ran pre-registered control campaigns to answer both, in the five regions where the record issues findings: Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Malaysia, Indonesia, and East Africa for coffee. The controls are mapped boundaries of known cover, not operators' plots.

02

The challenge

The EUDR puts the obligation on the operator. A plot that was forest on 31 December 2020 and has since been planted cannot go into a statement, and the operator has to be able to show the evidence behind each plot they file.

A record that gives a finding to forest is worse than no record, because it puts a plot into a statement that should never be there. A record that never reaches a finding on a real estate is no use either. The controls measure both sides.

03

What we did

Each control boundary was read by the plot evidence record exactly as a customer's plot would be: every look in the open archive over the seasons before the cutoff, from Copernicus Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 and the Commission's 2020 forest maps, with national maps as the local reference where they are published.

The record either issued a finding, an established stand before 31 December 2020, or withheld one and said why. The pass lines were written down before any block was read, and every count is printed with its denominator.

Control blocks by region and class: natural forest against established crop or coffee, 518 blocks in all.
Control blocks by region and class: natural forest against established crop or coffee, 518 blocks in all.
04

What the record showed

Region Forest blocks given a finding Crop blocks reaching a finding
Côte d'Ivoire 0 of 57 51 of 65 established crop
Ghana 0 of 45 12 of 16 oil palm; shaded cocoa goes to the archive review
Malaysia 0 of 30 22 of 30 oil palm
Indonesia 0 of 19 34 of 45 oil palm
East Africa 0 of 69 6 of 6 Kenyan coffee estates, 19 of 21 Ugandan coffee, 61 of 75 blocks on one Tanzanian estate

No natural forest control block in any region received a finding: 0 of 220. On the crop side the record reached findings on estates in every region, from 51 of 65 blocks in Côte d'Ivoire to 6 of 6 coffee estates in Kenya.

Where the open record could not tell a crop from forest, it withheld the finding and said why. A withheld plot is a designed outcome, and the archive review is the next step for it.

05

What it means

For an operator, these counts are the measured behaviour behind every plot record, printed with their denominators in the document's own calibration section. The finding applies to estates and sun-grown crops from four hectares in these five regions; smaller plots and plots elsewhere receive the same document as supporting evidence.

The determination stays with the operator. What the record gives them is a document per plot they can file beside the land title and the purchase records, and a measured answer when an inspector asks what stands behind it.

Run this on your own ground

Draw an area of interest, pick the dates, and the same analysis runs against the archive over your sites.

References

  1. Axine Labs (2026). Dated plot evidence for the EU Deforestation Regulation: a per-plot record with pre-registered controls. Section 4.
  2. Regulation (EU) 2023/1115 of the European Parliament and of the Council on deforestation-free products.
  3. European Commission Joint Research Centre. Global forest cover map for 2020. forest-observatory.ec.europa.eu
  4. European Space Agency. Copernicus Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 missions. sentinels.copernicus.eu